May 1, 2001
Honorable:
In the second half of March many parts of
Macedonian territory were attacked by terrorist insurgents.
While the situation seemed to be improving for a while it is
deteriorating again.
We were gratified that President Bush
issued a strong statement of support for Macedonia shortly thereafter and
announced a series of measures in response, including increased activity of
the US contingent of the KFOR forces, increased air surveillance, sharing
intelligence, and providing surveillance equipment.
The support the US Government and its
European allies have provided to Macedonia has been instrumental in the
progress that has been made in resolving the crisis. Tomorrow‘s meeting of
President Bush with President Trajkovski in the White House is another
powerful signal.
Concurrently, the US and its European
allies exerted strong pressure on the Macedonian government to institute
constitutional changes and legislate broader minority rights for the
Albanian minority. The pressure went so far to advocate including the terrorist
in negotiations with the Macedonian government and demanding that the
prosecution of the captured terrorists be forsaken.
This approach to constitutional changes at a gunpoint is has
destabilized the Macedonian political scene dangerously.
Macedonia also received strong support from
it neighbors and more traditional allies: Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Bulgaria
and Yugoslavia. This support
appears to have been full, unqualified, and has incorporated significant
military assistance. The
assistance of the neighbors and traditional allies has been and the mil was
essential for controlling the situation.
Ware concerned that the difference of the approach taken by these
countries is going to weaken the close relations between the US and
Macedonia that have been built in the last few years.
While we remain gratified for the support
president Bush and secretary Powell have provided support, the US is still
doing much less that what it would take to prevent the attacks by insurgents
that are finding safe haven in the NATO controlled Kosovo insurgency into
Macedonia from can and should do more to support Macedonia.
The need for restraint and for providing
proportionate and measured response to the terrorist attacks in order not to
radicalize the Albanian population has received ample attention.
There is however another side of the coin, the continuing tolerance
and complacence toward terrorist acts is finally starting to push the
Macedonian population toward radicalization.
The moderate approach of the Macedonian population and government to
ethnic conflict that is uncharacteristic for the region should be
cultivated, not punished.
We have emphasized the criminal roots of
the terrorism in Macedonia from the beginning of the crisis.
Those roots are becoming clearer and more openly exposed. A major aspect of the terrorist activities in Macedonia and
Southern Serbia is that they are a vehicle for organized crime gangs in
Kosovo to assert political influence over the populace. It is the only route to legitimacy the gang leaders have,
they can never win a peacetime election.
The terrorist acts are not committed by the Albanian population in
Macedonia at large but by individuals with their own personal political
agendas. Minority rights have no effect on the desire of the gang leaders
for respect and legitimacy and yielding on any demands by the Macedonian
government is not likely to have much effect on terrorism.
The following steps by the US government
would help stabilize the situation in Macedonia:
1.
Effective
control of the Kosovo territory and the Kosovo part of the
Yugoslav-Macedonian border by KFOR and demilitarization of Kosovo by
collecting the the arms.
The lack of effective control of the Kosovo territory, the lack of
patrol of the borders on the Kosovo side, the wide availability of arms in
Kosovo, and the criminalization of the Kosovo society have been the
principal sources of the problems in Macedonia.
Solving these problems was promised by president Bush but only a
small fraction of it has been delivered. We believe that the US forces in
Kosovo are fully capable of doing this but are not willing to do „whatever
it takes“ to accomplish the task. A buffer zone should be created along
the border and the Yugoslav military should be given increasing control of
Kosovo in response to each terrorist act if nothing else works.
2.
Strong
and unqualified condemnation of the latest terrorist attacks and punitive
response directed to anyone associated in any way with the terrorist
elements. It
is essential that such support is not accompanied by demands on the
Macedonian government for dialog, constitutional changes etc.
There is no indication that the terrorist attacks have any relation
to the minority rights of the Albanians in Macedonia nor that the fulfilling
of the demands that are being put on the Macedonian government would lead to
cessation of the terrorism. Any
positive response is likely to advance the terrorism. Advancing demands on
the Macedonian government in response to terrorist acts only lends
legitimacy to the terrorists.
3.
Immediate diplomatic recognition of Macedonia by the
US by its constitutional nameThe
continuing use of the temporary acronym FYROM by parts of the international
community, which the Macedonians find insulting and demeaning, remains a
major cause of frustration of the population in Macedonia. The lack of
recognition of Macedonia by its own name It is also perceived as a sign of
weakness by Macedonia’s its enemies and such perception is one of the
causes of the terrorist attacks. The diplomatic recognition of Macedonia by
its name recognition would
provide the badly needed sign of even handedness of the international
community in the minds of the Macedonian people and make them more likely to
institute the reforms being sought.
4. Economic assistance to Macedonia to offset the negative effects of the terrorist attacks on the economy and on foreign investment. The economic effects of the terrorism in Macedonia are devastating and the investor confidence that has been steadily growing over the last couple of years is evaporating. The US and the international monetary institutions should make every effort to help replace the investments being lost due to the crisis.
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