UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE N E W S B Y T E

September 25, 2002
Contact: John Brinkley, (202) 429-3824, <jbrinkley@usip.org>

BALKANS ELECTION SEASON: INTRACTABLE PROBLEMS, PERSISTENT
NATIONALISM

With elections having occurred or soon to occur this fall in
Bosnia (October 5), Kosovo (October 26), Macedonia (September
15), Montenegro (October 6), and Serbia (September 29), the
international community is watching the region to see if
moderate, reform-minded politicians can withstand nationalist
forces at the polls. The triumph of peace agreement supporters
in Macedonia last weekend is encouraging, but in much of the rest
of the region nationalists seem to hold the upper hand, despite
the declining threat of violence and increased attention to
economic issues. Will elections set back reform? Could violence
and instability return to the Balkans?

On Friday September 6, 2002, the U.S. Institute of Peace
organized a Balkans Working Group to discuss these issues. While
the discussion was not for attribution, this Newsbyte summarizes
salient arguments and dominant views:

REFORMERS FACE CHALLENGES
The fact that these elections are occurring under relatively free
and fair conditions marks major progress from the past. The
possibility of major violence is remote, but moderate politicians
face an uphill battle to gain or remain in power. Infighting and
unfulfilled expectations are fueling voter apathy and hostility
to reform:

- More unified nationalists are winning support by offering
protection for their own ethnic groups rather than looking
forward to European integration.
- Younger, more moderate voters may stay away from the polls.
- Political infighting among reformers is leading to electoral
decline and requiring alliances with nationalist parties to
secure majorities.
- Weak reformist governments have been attempting complicated
reforms, the benefits of which are not yet evident.

Bosnia
Economic concerns have surpassed ethnic identification as the
major concern in Bosnia and nationalists have long been in
decline, but the Bosnian Croat community still dreams of its own
entity and nationalists remain dominant in Republika Srpska.
Fragmented reformist parties will have to include nationalist
parties in governing coalitions.

Kosovo
Kosovo may enjoy some of the best-implemented elections in the
region, but the municipal institutions those elections are
supposed to empower are still weak. Many voters remain undecided,
and abstention may increase. In order for Kosovo to be
self-governing and for the international community to reduce its
presence, more authority should be transferred to local
institutions. Serb participation in the elections is necessary
to correct the imbalances caused by their abstention from the
last municipal elections, but conditions for Serb participation
are still far from acceptable.

Macedonia
While the elections came off well, Macedonia faces enormous
challenges in forming a new government coalition, meeting the
requirements of the peace agreement and responding to social and
economic challenges. Failure on any of these fronts could create
conditions for renewed violence.

Montenegro
Having handily survived his decision to keep Montenegro at least
temporarily within a common governing structure with Serbia,
President Djukanovic faces a split in pro-independence forces and
growing personal criticism for alleged smuggling. A divide has
emerged between the reform-minded political elite and the general
population. The politicians focus on independence while
repairing the disastrous economic situation is of greater concern
to voters.

Serbia
Serbia’s undecided voters, approximately 25% of the population,
are disheartened with politics. The reform coalition that
removed Milosevic is fighting more within itself than against
Serbia’s problems. President Kostunica’s appeal to national
continuity and stability is more reassuring to many voters than
the well thought out but complicated plans of the reformers,
which have not produced major visible gains in the short time
since their implementation.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?
As the US tries to reduce its engagement in the Balkans,
reformers are seeing their numbers in the polls drop.
Nationalists quietly applaud talk of exit strategies as they see
it as their opportunity to slip back into power. In order to
help secure the peace the international community can:

- Reemphasize engagement and transition rather than exit
strategies.
- Improve the rule of law, breaking the nationalists’ link to
illegal sources of revenue and ending immunity for reformers.
- Strengthen self-governance, making elections a means of
building up indigenous institutions with real power over policies
that affect citizens’ lives.
- Encourage responsible investigative journalism that is
independent of political parties and seeks the truth about crime
and corruption.
* * * * *
The United States Institute of Peace is an independent
institution created and funded by Congress to promote research,
education, and training on the peaceful resolution of
international conflicts.